2. Population and Demographics

This chapter summarizes and illustrates population and demographic data for the TCOG region. Topics of focus include population, age, race, household and housing characteristics, and educational attainment.

The Population

Cooke, Fannin, and Grayson Counties are predominantly rural communities with few major cities and employment centers driving the overall growth for the region. See Table 1 below, which illustrates historical population.

• The region has a total population of 212,983, which has grown slightly over 10.2% or by a population of just under 20,000 people since 2010.
• The annual growth rate has been generally similar between the three counties.
• The most populous county in the TCOG Region is Grayson County, which has grown 13% since 2010, also is an important economic center in the region.
• Sherman, Denison, Gainesville, and Bonham are the largest cities in the TCOG region, accounting for 45 percent of the total regional population.

Table 1: Historical Population of the Texoma Region

Figure 1: Historical Population of the Texoma Region

Area of Concern: Fast Growing Population

Texoma is a Fast Growing Region in the Nation’s Fastest Growing State

Over the past decade, Texas has seen more population growth (almost 4 million new residents from 2010-2021) than any other state in the nation. Texoma has seen a lower percentage of population growth than the state as a whole, which has seen a whopping 10.2% population increase since the 2010 census, according to the 2020 Census.

The Texoma region has seen a higher percentage of population growth than the United States as a whole, which has only grown 6.3% over the past decade. Grayson County has grown the most with a 13% population increase since 2010, followed by Cooke County with an 8% population increase since 2010, and Fannin County with a 5% increase. Total Texoma regional population is at 212,983 (Cooke 41,257, Fannin 35,514, and Grayson 136,212).

The Texas State Water Development Board predicts a further population increase of 9.4% in Cooke County, 8.7% in Grayson County, and 22.2% in Fannin County over the upcoming decade (2030), leading to a population in 2030 of 45,121 in Cooke County, 43,391 in Fannin County, and 148,056 in Grayson County, for a total regional population of 236,568. See Table and Chart below for Population Projections

Table 2: Population Projection for the Region

Figure 2: Population Projection for the Region

Current Projects Affecting Growth

Grayson County

Interstate I-75 Expansion (Texoma)

The US 75 Project is a TxDOT project to develop long-term transportation and operational improvements on US 75 and US 82 in the cities of Sherman and Denison in Grayson County. The purpose of the project is to improve safety, address congestion, improve traffic operations, and address roadway deficiencies. The Texas Transportation Commission recently approved a 10-year, $77 billion Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) plan for highway construction projects throughout the state. The 2020 Unified Transportation Program earmarks funds for projects in North Texas, all of which are scheduled to get underway before 2023.

The US 75 Project is a TxDOT project to develop long-term transportation and operational improvements on US 75 and US 82 in the cities of Sherman and Denison
in Grayson County. The purpose of the project is to improve safety, address congestion, improve traffic operations, and address roadway deficiencies. The Texas Transportation Commission recently approved a 10-year, $77 billion Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) plan for highway construction projects throughout the state. The 2020 Unified Transportation Program earmarks funds for projects in North Texas, all of which are scheduled to get underway before 2023.

The Interstate I-75 Expansion is a $155 million gap project, a long-time priority for both Sherman and Grayson County, which will have a four-mile segment of U.S. 75 brought up to interstate standards and expanded into a six-lane highway. Phase 5A of the Dallas North Tollway, also known as the Grayson County Tollway is currently under construction. This phase brings an additional regional
thoroughfare connection to the County and will be a main driving force in the economic development of
southern Grayson County. Upon its completion Grayson County Residents will be able to utilize the Tollway connection at FM 121 and travel to the heart of the DFW Metroplex. This is anticipated to alleviate congestion on the Preston Road Corridor, and will facilitate the development of traditionally rural
agricultural land into retail, commercial, and residential opportunities. The first Phase of the Grayson County Tollway is expected to be completed in 2022, with future extensions planned to extend the tollway to Denison.

The origins of the gap project date back to approximately 2017, when area leaders began to pursue improvements that would update the highway from FM 1417 to State Highway 91. Previously, county and regional transportation leaders have said that the highway is in need of an update, as it was not designed for modern traffic patterns and speeds. Officials with the Texas Department of Transportation predict that it may be the summer of 2023 before the construction on U.S. Highway 75 finally is completed. For more information, visit www.txdot.gov.

Fannin County

Bois d’Arc Lake

Bois d’Arc Lake is a 16,641-acre lake currently under construction by the North Texas Municipal Water District (NTMWD), located in Fannin County northeast of Bonham. The $1.6 billion project will provide a reliable water supply beginning in 2022 for the 1.8 million North Texans that NTMWD serves, and will provide economic and recreational benefits for Fannin County. According to an economic study commissioned by NTMWD, Bois d’Arc Lake is projected to bring $509 million in economic activity to Fannin County during its construction. Upon completion, the lake is projected to add $166 million in annual economic activity to Fannin County, and create approximately 2,400 new long-term jobs. Over the next 30 years, the study’s economist expects that Bois d’Arc Lake will attract 1,100 full-time resident households and 2,100 new weekend/vacation homes.

Lake Ralph Hall

Lake Ralph Hall will be the newest lake and one of the state’s biggest projects to be built in nearly 30 years. Named after the longtime US Congressman Ralph Hall from Rockwall, the reservoir will be located on the North Sulphur River in Southeast Fannin County, North Texas.

The project is being built by Upper Trinity Regional Water District (UTRWD) and will provide crucial water for an area whose population is projected to increase nearly five-fold in the next 50 years.

Construction on the lake is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2021, with water delivery by 2025. Once complete, it will provide up to 54 million gallons per day — 35 million gallons daily (MGD) of raw and 19 MGD of reuse water.

Jones Field Airport

According to Bonham Mayor Roy Floyd, the city of Bonham recently adopted a 20-year master plan for the Jones Field Municipal Airport. The city plans to extend the airport’s runway from 4,000 to 5,000 feet, which would allow jets to land at the airport. The city expects to get grants from the state and federal government that would pay for 75 percent or more of the cost.

Cooke County

Gainesville features the Gateway Industrial Park, consists of 126 acres of shovel-ready acreage in the City of Gainesville, just 1/2 mile off Interstate 35. There are more than 1 million people within a 50 mile radius.

Gainesville is also home to the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad (BNSF) with switching yard, and a Manufacturing Consortium partnership for talent development with North Central Texas College.

Gateway Industrial Park has access to BNSF Railway and has received certification as part of BNSF Railway’s Site Certification program. BNSF certification ensures a site is ready for rapid acquisition and development through a comprehensive evaluation of existing and projected infrastructure, environmental and geotechnical standards, utility evaluation and site availability.

Gateway Site details:

• 125 acres available for development
• Direct access to BNSF
• Industrial zoning

Area of Concern: Transportation in High Demand

There are no fixed route public transportation options in the region

According to Texoma Council of Governments’ 2019 Transit Market Study, the Texoma region has populations of higher than the state average of senior citizens, people with disabilities, and veterans, leading to unique transportation challenges not currently being met. The Texoma region has one major public transportation provider known as Texoma Area Paratransit System (TAPS), which is demand responsive. There is a need for reliable, fixed route public transpiration in the area to supply consistent and reliable transportation for the region.

A fixed route study is currently underway to analyze use and recommend fixed route service for high demand areas and between employment centers. Access to
reliable transportation will continue to impact the available workforce.

The following demographic indicators including Age and Ethnicity. Housing and Educational Attainment are illustrated in the following summary.

Figure 3: Texoma Region Demographics at a Glance

Age

The median age in each of the counties in the TCOG Region ranges between 40 and 41 years.

Roughly over half of the population in the TCOG Region is between the ages of 18 to 64 years, providing a sizeable employable population for the region and
surrounding area. Citizens aged 65 and over account for roughly 18 percent of the total population of the region.

Age Group

Ethnicities

• The TCOG region is overwhelmingly White (88%), and the racial distribution is mostly homogeneous.
• Fannin County and Grayson County have the largest percentage of Black or African American residents at 6%.

Education

Educational Attainment

• Over 80% of the population 18 years and older has a high school degree or higher, but only 20% has a four year college degree.
• The education distribution in the TCOG Region is generally appropriate for local manufacturing and construction trade jobs but perhaps less so
  for skilled industries.

  Table 5: Education in Texoma Region
  	Cooke	Grayson	Fannin	Texoma Region
  Not High School	3,632 (13.6%)	9,741 (11.2%)	2,753 (12.6%)	16,126
  High School	8,448 (31.6%)	26,014 (29.9%)	7,670 (35.2%)	42,132
  Some College	9,040 (33.8%)	33,414 (38.4%)	7,302 (33.5%)	49,756
  BA’s or Higher	5,621 (21.0%)	17,958 (20.6%)	4,069 (18.7%)	27,648
  Total	26,741 (100%)	87,127 (100%)	21,794 (100%)	135,662
  Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2015-2019

Education Resources

There are a large number of high quality educational institutions in the region. Options in the area include thirty-one independent school districts, five K-12 private schools, two public two-year community colleges, and one four-year private college. In the surrounding areas there are three public two year community colleges, and four public four year colleges.

Vocational Training

The Texoma region has more than 90 training programs that offer students an opportunity to gain training in a workforce program, from two year degrees to certificates or certifications that take just a few short months or weeks. Students can choose from a variety of educational outcomes that include Certifications, Certificates, and Associates degrees. Workforce training programs provide students the choice of a variety of subjects including Nursing, Manufacturing, Medical or Dental Assistants, Patient Care and Pharmacy Technicians, Computers, Administrative Support, Accounting, Business, Electrical Technology, Criminal Justice, Gaming, Engineering, Truck Driving, Radiologic Technology, Medical Lab Technician, and others, which offer area industries the necessary skilled labor.

Housing and Homes

Housing Units

• Overall, 87% of housing units in the region are occupied. Cooke County has the highest occupancy rate at 91%, then Grayson County at 87% and Fannin County at 86%.
• Grayson County has the highest percentage of housing units in the region at 65%, then Cooke County at 20% and Fannin County at 16%.

Homes

A home purchase is one of the largest investments individuals make. Home ownership accounts for a significant portion of households’ net worth in the United States. As of October 2020, owner-occupied real estate accounted for slightly more than a quarter of a households’ net worth, according to Federal Reserve data.

• Grayson County has the highest median home value of $275,000. Grayson County has 1.3 months of inventory in 2022, compared to 1.5 in February 2021.
• Cooke County’s median home value is $268,950. Cooke County has 0.7 month of inventory in 2022 compared to 1.2 in February 2021.
• Fannin County’s median home value is $215,000. Fannin County has 3 months of inventory in 2022, compared to 2 months in February 2021.

The majority of the occupied housing units are traditional single-family homes followed by mobile homes. Large apartment structures and urban living are not prevalent and smaller options such as duplexes and live-work buildings appear to be extremely rare or nonexistent.

Area of Concern: Housing Shortage & Cost Burden

Short Housing Supply

Over the past decade, Texoma’s housing construction has lagged behind regional population growth, leading to a lack of sufficient housing. Affordable workforce housing is a particular need in the region.

• From 2010 to 2020, there was only a 4.6% increase in housing units (3,815 housing units were added) but a 10.2% increase in population (20,000 people were added). Housing development continues to lag behind population growth, leading to housing shortages in the region.
• Also, there was only a marginal increase in owner-occupied units from 2010 to 2020, at 2.9% for the whole region. Cooke County was at 4%, Grayson County was the least improved at 2.1%, and Fannin County was at 4.5%. This shows a real need for expanded home ownership in the region, especially in Grayson county where the majority of Texoma’s workforce resides. Providing housing for an increased workforce must remain a high priority.

Housing Cost Burden

Housing Cost Burden is defined as: selected monthly owner costs, or gross rent payments, that are more than 30% of household income. This is significant because when individuals are paying 30% or more of their monthly income on housing expenses, they are struggling to afford necessities and are at risk of slipping into poverty. Housing cost burden is an important indicator of the stability of housing in a region.

• The region’s homeowners (18.2% average) are less likely to be housing cost burdened than renters (32.6% average); therefore increasing the number of owner-occupied
  units will help with the region’s Housing Cost Burden.
• The data show that homeowners in Texoma are doing better than renters and less likely to be cost burdened by housing, even while paying a monthly mortgage. This would imply that the obstacle is not just income, but possibly down payment savings, or access to loans, or buyer education. Home ownership does appear to be a better way to keep housing costs below 30%, even while paying mortgages. Additional resources to facilitate expanded home ownership in the region could be warranted.